On lap 31 of the 1984 Monaco Grand Prix, a 24-year-old Brazilian in a Toleman-Hart was closing on the race leader at over a second per lap. The leader was Alain Prost, driving for McLaren — the dominant team of the era. The Toleman was not supposed to be anywhere near the front. It was a car from a small team with a budget that would not have covered McLaren's catering.
But in the rain on the narrow streets of Monte Carlo, Ayrton Senna was rewriting the laws of possibility. And then the race was stopped. What happened in those 31 laps — and what might have happened in the 44 that never ran — is one of the great what-ifs of Formula 1.
The conditions
Monaco in May 1984 was wet. Not the light, intermittent drizzle that sometimes affects races — proper, persistent, torrential rain. The streets were flooded. The barriers were barely visible through the spray. Visibility was measured in metres, not hundreds of metres.
In these conditions, the narrow, unforgiving streets of Monaco become a trap. There is no run-off. Every corner is lined with Armco barriers. A mistake is not a trip through the gravel — it is a crash into a wall, in a car with no modern safety cell, no halo, and minimal crash structure.
Several drivers decided the risk was not worth it. Nigel Mansell, who had won the previous race at Paul Ricard, spun out early. Niki Lauda, the two-time world champion and Prost's teammate at McLaren, also crashed. The attrition rate was extraordinary — only nine cars were still running by the time the race was stopped.
Prost's early lead
Prost started from pole and led from the first corner. The McLaren MP4/2 was the class of the field in 1984 — Prost and Lauda would win 12 of the 16 races between them that season — and in the early laps, Prost used his car's superiority to build a comfortable gap.
But the wet conditions were eroding that advantage. In the dry, the McLaren was faster than everything else on the grid. In the rain, the car's power advantage mattered less than tyre temperature, aerodynamic grip, and driver feel. And the wet was levelling the field.
Prost was also aware of the championship picture. He was leading the standings and knew that finishing in the points was more important than risking everything for a win in dangerous conditions. He was driving quickly but not pushing to the absolute limit — a calculated approach that would become his trademark.
Senna's charge through the field
Senna started 13th in his Toleman-Hart. The car was not quick — it had qualified almost three seconds slower than Prost's McLaren. But in the wet, its deficiencies in aerodynamic downforce were less of a penalty, and Senna's ability to feel the grip level through the steering wheel and the seat of his pants was extraordinary.
He passed Niki Lauda on lap 11. He passed Elio de Angelis on lap 19. He passed Michele Alboreto on lap 22. Each move was executed with a precision and confidence that belied his lack of experience — this was only his sixth Formula 1 race.
By lap 27, Senna was in second place and closing on Prost at a rate of over a second per lap. The gap was 7.6 seconds. At the current rate of closure, Senna would catch Prost within eight laps — well before the race distance of 77 laps.
The red flag and the controversy
On lap 31, race director Jacky Ickx decided to stop the race. The rain was getting worse, visibility was deteriorating, and the track was flooding in several places. The red flag was shown, and the results were taken from the positions at the end of lap 31.
The decision was immediately controversial. Prost was declared the winner, but he received only half points because the race had not completed 75% of its scheduled distance. Senna was classified second.
The controversy centred on two questions. First, was the decision to stop the race necessary, or was it made to protect Prost's lead? Ickx was a Porsche factory driver at the time, and Porsche supplied engines to McLaren. The appearance of a conflict of interest — whether or not the decision was justified — fuelled suspicion.
Second, would Senna have passed Prost if the race had continued? The rate of closure suggested he would have. But Prost was a master of race management, and it is entirely possible that he would have responded to Senna's pressure by finding more pace. The what-if can never be resolved.
The half-point that cost a championship
The most remarkable consequence of Monaco 1984 emerged at the end of the season. Prost lost the 1984 championship to his teammate Lauda by half a point — the smallest margin in Formula 1 history. If the Monaco race had been stopped one lap earlier, or one lap later, or if full points had been awarded, the championship outcome would have been different.
That half-point — earned in a rain-shortened race where a rookie in an uncompetitive car was catching the eventual runner-up — is one of the most tantalising footnotes in the sport's history. It is a reminder that in Formula 1, every point matters, and that the difference between champion and runner-up can come down to a single decision on a wet afternoon in Monaco.
Why Monaco 1984 still resonates
Monaco 1984 is remembered less for the result than for the performance. Senna did not win. He did not even finish on the lead lap. But what he did in those 31 laps — taking an uncompetitive car from 13th to second in the wet, on a circuit where mistakes are punished instantly — announced him as a driver who could transcend his machinery.
The race also foreshadowed the rivalry that would define the late 1980s. Senna and Prost, the two drivers at the centre of the Monaco drama, would become teammates at McLaren in 1988 and then engage in the bitter, championship-deciding battles of 1989 and 1990. Monaco 1984 was the first chapter.
And the what-if remains. If Ickx had not stopped the race, would Senna have passed Prost? Would the Toleman have held together for another 46 laps? Would Senna have won his first Grand Prix in his sixth start, rather than waiting until Portugal later that year? The questions cannot be answered, which is precisely why they still fascinate.
What to watch if you replay it
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Senna's laps 20-31: Watch the sector times. He is consistently faster than Prost through the middle sector — the twisty, low-speed section where car advantage matters least and driver feel matters most.
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Ickx's decision point: The conditions were genuinely dangerous. The controversy is not about whether the race should have been stopped — it is about when. One lap earlier or later changes the result.
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Prost's body language in the post-race interviews: He is relieved but not celebratory. He knows he was fortunate.